Playing 12 vs. 3 in Blackjack. Here's the situation: You're in a four deck game, with standard rules. You've been dealt a seven and a five for a hard 12, while the dealer shows a three as his upcard. He might bust, and then again he might not. You're mulling it over. What do you do here?
12 VS DEALER 3. When a player holds a 9-3 (12) against a dealer 3 upcard, he is reluctant to hit for fear of drawing a 10 and busting, especially when the dealer is showing a “weak” upcard. In the case of 6-5 (11) vs a dealer 10, players are averse to double down (and double their bet) because they fear the dealer has a 10 in the hole and a 20. When being dealt an A-7, players feel comfortable standing on 18, believing that an 18 should be good enough to beat a dealer’s 9 upcard.
If you're a basic strategy playerr just hit your 12 v 2 or 3. With a multi-deck game, even if there are lots of small cards on the table the odds are in your favour not to bust. If you were to count the cards, there would come a point when you would stand with your 12, and this would be dependent on the composition of the remaining cards to play.
If you bet €200 on colour in Roulette you basically have 49% Blackjack 12 Vs 3 chance to win €400 when only risking €100 of your own money. If you win, then you head to the slots and bet pretty decent stakes in order to get a big win so that you can clear the wagering requirements.
Hitting the hard 12 against a 2 or a 3 is recommended because there are only 4 out of 13 possible card denominations that can lead to a bust – the 10 and the three court cards (Jack, Queen, and King). Then again, 3 out of 13 card denominations result in a significant improvement of the player’s hand, the 9, the 8, and 7.
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MULTI-CARD 12. Sometimes your 12 will be composed of three (or more) cards, for example 5-3-4 or 2-3-A-6. No problem: Regardless of the number of cards that comprises your 12, just following the above basic strategy and always hit when the dealer shows a 2 upcard.
Today I’m looking at the 13 vs 3 since I may start testing out a more aggressive strategy going forward. According to the great folks at Wizard of Odds the dealer has only a 37% chance of busting when he starts with a 3 showing. On the flip side if I’ve got a 13 my odds of busting when taking one card are only 38%.
If you always hit the 12, you're going to lose at about the same rate - 56%, in this case, but you're going to win less - 3% less, as a matter of fact. So, even though the percentages are against your busting out with a hit, the overall win/loss percentage (the one that counts) dictates that you stand on your 12.
A Basic Strategy player should hit two card hard 16s vs 10 and stand with 3+ card hard 16s vs 10. Some refine that by advocating the rule of 45. This would have the player stay on three card 16s containing a 4 or a 5 while hitting all other combinations. This is for basic strategy players only and it is very, very close.
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